OFI 0-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Panetolikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 5 sees Panetolikos travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022, 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — OFI at 1.50 PPG versus Panetolikos's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 60% versus Panetolikos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 53% | Panetolikos 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.53 xG and Panetolikos 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.146 / defence 1.329 | Panetolikos attack 0.953 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.050. Panetolikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.358 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 OFI games / 26 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 42% | Draw 25% | Panetolikos 33%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Panetolikos 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: OFI 90% | Panetolikos 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 42% | Draw 25% | Panetolikos 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG OFI 1.53 / Panetolikos 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.146 / def 1.329 | Panetolikos attack 0.953 / def 1.358 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: OFI (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Panetolikos xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Panetolikos kick off?
OFI vs Panetolikos kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Panetolikos?
OFI 0 - 1 Panetolikos.
Where is OFI vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Panetolikos part of?
OFI vs Panetolikos is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 42% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both OFI and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panetolikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Panetolikos in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
OFI's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
42%
2.37
25%
4.01
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
OFI xG
Total xG
2.86
1.33
Panetolikos xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
7%
14.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are OFI and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for OFI and 1.33 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OFI's recent record stands at 10W 11D 9L from 30 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 15L across 30 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.37 PPG, Panetolikos on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OFI have managed 5W 4D 5L from 14 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 5W 2D 7L across 14 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OFI have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Current Season
Panetolikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 10W 11D 9L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 9W 6D 15L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Panetolikos away?
OFI's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.36 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.21 PPG.
Have OFI or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Panetolikos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2023, when OFI won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
1
Draws
5
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 4, Panetolikos have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when OFI 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Panetolikos?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 71%, Panetolikos 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for OFI and 64% for Panetolikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Panetolikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of OFI's games and 57% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of OFI's matches and 64% of Panetolikos's.
Do OFI and Panetolikos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panetolikos defy the odds to beat OFI 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat OFI 0-1 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Relegation Round - 5, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.53 xG and Panetolikos 1.33 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. OFI fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.15 / defence 1.33 against Panetolikos attack 0.95 / defence 1.36, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 42% | Draw 25% | Panetolikos 33%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 53%, Panetolikos 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panetolikos's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.37 PPG, Panetolikos 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.