Levadiakos 1-2 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Levadiakos welcome Atromitos to Stadio Levadias. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 March 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Levadias this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atromitos — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Atromitos have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Levadiakos) versus 1.30 (Atromitos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Levadiakos, 2 for Atromitos and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Atromitos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 58% versus Atromitos 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 46% | Atromitos 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.09 xG and Atromitos 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.937 / defence 1.117 | Atromitos attack 1.108 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.163. Data: 24 Levadiakos games / 50 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 29% | Draw 26% | Atromitos 45%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Atromitos 2.22. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 60% | Atromitos 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 29% | Draw 26% | Atromitos 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Levadiakos 1.09 / Atromitos 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.937 / def 1.117 | Atromitos attack 1.108 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Atromitos xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Atromitos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Atromitos kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Levadiakos 1 - 2 Atromitos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Atromitos part of?
Levadiakos vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 29% chance of winning, Atromitos a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Levadiakos and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
Record (4 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 1 | Atromitos 2W.
What form are Levadiakos and Atromitos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Atromitos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
29%
3.50
26%
3.80
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.53
1.44
Atromitos xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
7%
14.74
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.44 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 6W 9D 9L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos's form line: 9W 4D 11L from 24 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 1.12 PPG, Atromitos on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L).
On the road, Atromitos have gone 6W 2D 4L from 12 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.21 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 6W 9D 9L in their last 24 games (1.12 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 9W 4D 11L in their last 24 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Atromitos away?
Atromitos's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.08 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Levadiakos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
2
Draws
3
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 2, Atromitos have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Levadiakos 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 50%, Atromitos 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Levadiakos) and 58% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Atromitos in 33%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Levadiakos's recent games and 58% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Atromitos tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Levadiakos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Levadiakos 1-2 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.09 xG and Atromitos 1.44 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against Atromitos attack 1.11 / defence 0.89, drawn from 24/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 29% | Draw 26% | Atromitos 45%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 46%, Atromitos 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.12 PPG, Atromitos 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.