Volos NFC 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Volos NFC face Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Aris Thessalonikis travel to Panthessaliko Stadio to take on Volos NFC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 1W 2D 7L at Panthessaliko Stadio — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Aris Thessalonikis are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Aris Thessalonikis have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Volos NFC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Volos NFC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Aris Thessalonikis have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 53% versus Aris Thessalonikis 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 54% | Aris Thessalonikis 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.16 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.748 / defence 1.247 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.944 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.176. Volos NFC's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Aris Thessalonikis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Volos NFC games / 50 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 31% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 42%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 31% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Volos NFC 1.16 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.748 / def 1.247 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.944 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Aris Thessalonikis xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Volos NFC 1 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 31% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (5 meetings): Volos NFC 1W | Draws 0 | Aris Thessalonikis 4W.
What form are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 0.75x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
31%
3.18
27%
3.77
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.55
1.39
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.69
13%
7.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.39 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 14W 12D 31L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 27W 11D 19L from 57 games, 1.61 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 0.86 PPG from 28 outings (6W 6D 16L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 11W 5D 12L from 28 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.33 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 14W 12D 31L in their last 57 games (0.95 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 27W 11D 19L in their last 57 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 0.86 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Aris Thessalonikis won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Volos NFC
2
Draws
7
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Volos NFC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 64%, Aris Thessalonikis 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Volos NFC) and 39% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 43%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 39% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Volos NFC's recent games and 39% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis finished level at 1-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.16 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.39 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.75 / defence 1.25 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.94 / defence 1.21, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 31% | Draw 27% | Aris Thessalonikis 42%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 54%, Aris Thessalonikis 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.