Kallithea 1-2 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panserraikos at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kallithea vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panserraikos make the trip to Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis to face Kallithea in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 22 November 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kallithea's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kallithea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kallithea have posted 0W 3D 2L at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Panserraikos (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panserraikos's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Kallithea against 1.00 for Panserraikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Kallithea — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kallithea 54% versus Panserraikos 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kallithea 46% | Panserraikos 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kallithea 1.23 xG and Panserraikos 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kallithea attack 0.777 / defence 1.330 | Panserraikos attack 0.973 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.240. Kallithea's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Kallithea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Kallithea games / 37 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kallithea 29% | Draw 25% | Panserraikos 46%. Fair-value odds: Kallithea 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Panserraikos 2.17. Panserraikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panserraikos at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panserraikos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Kallithea 60% | Panserraikos 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kallithea vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kallithea 29% | Draw 25% | Panserraikos 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Kallithea 1.23 / Panserraikos 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Kallithea attack 0.777 / def 1.330 | Panserraikos attack 0.973 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Panserraikos (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Kallithea xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Panserraikos xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kallithea vs Panserraikos kick off?
Kallithea vs Panserraikos kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Kallithea vs Panserraikos?
Kallithea 1 - 2 Panserraikos.
Where is Kallithea vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Kallithea vs Panserraikos part of?
Kallithea vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kallithea vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Kallithea a 29% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Panserraikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kallithea vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Kallithea and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Kallithea vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and Panserraikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kallithea and Panserraikos in?
Kallithea (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Panserraikos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Kallithea vs Panserraikos?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kallithea's attack at 0.78x the league average against Panserraikos's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (0.97x) against Kallithea's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 11/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panserraikos Win
29%
3.46
25%
3.97
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Kallithea xG
Total xG
2.83
1.60
Panserraikos xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
6%
17.21
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kallithea vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Kallithea and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Kallithea and 1.60 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Kallithea vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Kallithea have picked up 0.64 PPG on a 0W 7D 4L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Kallithea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panserraikos's form line: 3W 1D 7L from 11 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.64 PPG for Kallithea against 0.91 for Panserraikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kallithea have posted 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L).
On the road, Panserraikos have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panserraikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kallithea are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.27 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panserraikos in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kallithea
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kallithea and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Kallithea have gone 0W 7D 4L in their last 11 games (0.64 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 3W 1D 7L in their last 11 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kallithea at home or Panserraikos away?
Panserraikos's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kallithea at home: 0.60 PPG; Panserraikos away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kallithea have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Kallithea
1
Draws
3
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and Panserraikos?
From 4 meetings on record, Kallithea have won 0, Panserraikos have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kallithea and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Kallithea 1-1 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Kallithea and Panserraikos?
Panserraikos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kallithea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kallithea 60%, Panserraikos 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Kallithea and 80% for Panserraikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kallithea have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kallithea home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kallithea play Panserraikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Kallithea's games and 60% of Panserraikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kallithea vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Kallithea's matches and 80% of Panserraikos's.
Do Kallithea and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Kallithea have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panserraikos edge out Kallithea 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat Kallithea 1-2 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 1.23 xG and Panserraikos 1.60 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.78 / defence 1.33 against Panserraikos attack 0.97 / defence 1.28, drawn from 11/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kallithea 29% | Draw 25% | Panserraikos 46%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 46%, Panserraikos 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kallithea's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Panserraikos's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kallithea 0.64 PPG, Panserraikos 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.