Iraklis 1908 vs Volos NFC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Iraklis 1908 at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Iraklis 1908 vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Iraklis 1908 host Volos NFC at Kaftanzoglio Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 January 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Iraklis 1908 — All Games: 1W 4D 4L from 9 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.78 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Iraklis 1908 have posted 1W 1D 2L at Kaftanzoglio Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Iraklis 1908 at 0.78 PPG versus Volos NFC's 0.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Iraklis 1908 have won 0, Volos NFC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Iraklis 1908 in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Iraklis 1908 56% versus Volos NFC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Iraklis 1908 33% | Volos NFC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Iraklis 1908 1.63 xG and Volos NFC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.817 / defence 1.303 | Volos NFC attack 0.797 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. Data: 9 Iraklis 1908 games / 35 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 49% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 23%. Fair-value odds: Iraklis 1908 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Volos NFC 4.35. Iraklis 1908 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Iraklis 1908 at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Iraklis 1908 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Iraklis 1908 50% | Volos NFC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Iraklis 1908 vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Kaftanzoglio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 49% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Iraklis 1908 1.63 / Volos NFC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.817 / def 1.303 | Volos NFC attack 0.797 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Iraklis 1908 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Iraklis 1908 xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Volos NFC xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Iraklis 1908 vs Volos NFC kick off?
Iraklis 1908 vs Volos NFC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
Where is Iraklis 1908 vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
What competition is Iraklis 1908 vs Volos NFC part of?
Iraklis 1908 vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Iraklis 1908 vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Iraklis 1908 a 49% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Iraklis 1908 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Iraklis 1908 vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Iraklis 1908 and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Iraklis 1908 vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Iraklis 1908 and Volos NFC?
Record (1 meetings): Iraklis 1908 0W | Draws 1 | Volos NFC 0W.
What form are Iraklis 1908 and Volos NFC in?
Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.56 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Volos NFC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Iraklis 1908's attack at 0.82x the league average against Volos NFC's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Iraklis 1908's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Iraklis 1908 Win
49%
2.03
28%
3.59
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Iraklis 1908 xG
Total xG
2.68
1.05
Volos NFC xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
4%
22.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Iraklis 1908 vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Iraklis 1908 and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Iraklis 1908 and 1.05 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Iraklis 1908 vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Iraklis 1908 have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 1W 4D 4L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Iraklis 1908 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 0W 3D 6L from 9 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Iraklis 1908 are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Iraklis 1908 have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Iraklis 1908 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Iraklis 1908 are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 0.67 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Iraklis 1908
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Iraklis 1908 and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Iraklis 1908 have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 0W 3D 6L in their last 9 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Iraklis 1908 at home or Volos NFC away?
Iraklis 1908's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Iraklis 1908 at home: 1.00 PPG; Volos NFC away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Iraklis 1908
1
Draws
0
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Iraklis 1908 and Volos NFC?
From 1 meetings on record, Iraklis 1908 have won 0, Volos NFC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Iraklis 1908 and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Volos NFC 1-1 Iraklis 1908.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Iraklis 1908 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Iraklis 1908 50%, Volos NFC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Iraklis 1908) and 75% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Iraklis 1908 home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Iraklis 1908 play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Iraklis 1908's recent matches and 50% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Iraklis 1908 vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Iraklis 1908's recent games and 75% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Iraklis 1908 and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Iraklis 1908 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.