Atromitos 2-1 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Levadiakos travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 November 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atromitos — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's home record at Stadio Peristeriou: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Peristeriou this season.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 2L across 5 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Atromitos are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Atromitos, 1 for Levadiakos and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Atromitos 64% and Levadiakos 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 54% | Levadiakos 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.48 xG and Levadiakos 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.942 / defence 1.169 | Levadiakos attack 0.962 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.272. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Atromitos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Atromitos games / 11 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 38% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 36%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Levadiakos 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 70% | Levadiakos 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Monday 25 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 38% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Atromitos 1.48 / Levadiakos 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.942 / def 1.169 | Levadiakos attack 0.962 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Levadiakos xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Atromitos vs Levadiakos kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 25 November 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Atromitos 2 - 1 Levadiakos.
Where is Atromitos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Levadiakos part of?
Atromitos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 38% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Atromitos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
Record (3 meetings): Atromitos 1W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 1W.
What form are Atromitos and Levadiakos in?
Atromitos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.94) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
38%
2.60
25%
3.97
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.91
1.43
Levadiakos xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
9%
10.88
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.43 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos's recent record stands at 4W 2D 5L from 11 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 1W 6D 4L across 11 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atromitos by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levadiakos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.27 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 0W 3D 2L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.09 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atromitos have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Levadiakos in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 games (1.27 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 1W 6D 4L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Levadiakos away?
Atromitos's home record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 0.60 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atromitos and Levadiakos runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atromitos's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Atromitos
2
Draws
2
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 3, Levadiakos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Levadiakos 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Atromitos at 60%, Levadiakos at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Atromitos and 60% for Levadiakos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Atromitos's games and 80% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atromitos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Atromitos's matches and 60% of Levadiakos's.
Do Atromitos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Levadiakos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Levadiakos 2-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.48 xG and Levadiakos 1.43 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.94 / defence 1.17 against Levadiakos attack 0.96 / defence 1.26, drawn from 37/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 38% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 36%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 54%, Levadiakos 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Levadiakos's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atromitos arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.