Atromitos 1-1 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Larisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Atromitos welcome Larisa to Peristeri Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 September 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atromitos have posted 1W 4D 5L at Peristeri Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Peristeri Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Larisa stand at 0W 3D 1L from 4 Super League 1 matches — 0.75 PPG. Last five: L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Larisa have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Atromitos) versus 0.75 (Larisa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Atromitos trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Larisa trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Atromitos 50% and Larisa 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atromitos 25% | Larisa 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.43 xG and Larisa 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.964 / defence 1.104 | Larisa attack 0.870 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.178. Data: 30 Atromitos games / 4 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 44% | Draw 27% | Larisa 30%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Larisa 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atromitos at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 50% | Larisa 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Peristeri Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 29 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 44% | Draw 27% | Larisa 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Atromitos 1.43 / Larisa 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.964 / def 1.104 | Larisa attack 0.870 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Larisa xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Larisa kick off?
Atromitos vs Larisa kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 29 September 2025 at Peristeri Stadium.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Larisa?
Atromitos 1 - 1 Larisa.
Where is Atromitos vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Peristeri Stadium.
What competition is Atromitos vs Larisa part of?
Atromitos vs Larisa is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 44% chance of winning, Larisa a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Atromitos and Larisa will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Larisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atromitos and Larisa in?
Atromitos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Larisa (all comps): 0W-3D-1L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.96x the league average against Larisa's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Larisa's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.74
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.56
1.13
Larisa xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
7%
14.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.13 for Larisa, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Larisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Larisa sit at 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L), a run that reads L-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Larisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.00 PPG, Larisa on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Larisa in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Early Season
Larisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Larisa in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Larisa have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atromitos and Larisa runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atromitos's record when hosting Larisa specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Atromitos
2
Draws
1
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Larisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 1, Larisa have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Larisa last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Larisa 2-1 Atromitos.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Larisa tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 50%, Larisa 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Atromitos and 25% for Larisa.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Larisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Atromitos's games and 75% of Larisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atromitos vs Larisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Atromitos's recent games and 25% of Larisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Larisa tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Larisa in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and Larisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Peristeri Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Atromitos and Larisa drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.43 xG and Larisa 1.13 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Larisa attack 0.87 / defence 1.13, drawn from 30/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 44% | Draw 27% | Larisa 30%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 25%, Larisa 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Larisa's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.00 PPG, Larisa 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.