Asteras Tripolis 3-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Asteras Tripolis host Atromitos at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Asteras Tripolis have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Asteras Tripolis at 1.80 PPG versus Atromitos's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Atromitos in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 36% versus Atromitos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 36% | Atromitos 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.58 xG and Atromitos 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.878 / defence 1.126 | Atromitos attack 1.073 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.298. Data: 45 Asteras Tripolis games / 45 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 38% | Draw 24% | Atromitos 38%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Atromitos 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 40% | Atromitos 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 38% | Draw 24% | Atromitos 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.58 / Atromitos 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.878 / def 1.126 | Atromitos attack 1.073 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Atromitos xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Asteras Tripolis 3 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 38% chance of winning, Atromitos a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Atromitos (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Asteras Tripolis's attack rating (0.88) and Atromitos's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
38%
2.63
24%
4.10
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
3.15
1.57
Atromitos xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
8%
12.62
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.57 for Atromitos, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 52 games, going 13W 18D 21L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.17 PPG from 52 outings (14W 19D 19L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.10 PPG, Atromitos on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 9W 10D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 0.76 points per game from 25 outings (4W 7D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atromitos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.12 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 13W 18D 21L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 14W 19D 19L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Atromitos away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.48 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Atromitos in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2025, when Atromitos won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Asteras Tripolis
0
Draws
4
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, Atromitos have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 4-2 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 40%, Atromitos 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Asteras Tripolis) and 48% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 32% of games; Atromitos in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 64% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 48% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Atromitos 3-1 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.58 xG and Atromitos 1.57 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.88 / defence 1.13 against Atromitos attack 1.07 / defence 1.15, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 38% | Draw 24% | Atromitos 38%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 36%, Atromitos 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Atromitos's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.10 PPG, Atromitos 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Atromitos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.