AEK Athens FC 3-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 74% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AEK Athens FC host OFI at OPAP Arena in Super League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 28 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
AEK Athens FC — last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, AEK Athens FC have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, OFI have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, OFI have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, AEK Athens FC have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for AEK Athens FC, 2 for OFI and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Oct 2023, ended AEK Athens FC 0–2 OFI — a OFI win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
AEK Athens FC trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
OFI trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 38% versus OFI 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 56% | OFI 38%). Note also that OFI surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while AEK Athens FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 2.19 xG and OFI 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.240 / defence 0.693 | OFI attack 0.673 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.307. OFI's attack rating of 0.673 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.61. AEK Athens FC have a tight defence (rating 0.693), which is pulling OFI's projected output down. Data: built from AEK Athens FC's last 45 games and OFI's last 45.
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 74% | Draw 18% | OFI 9%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.36 | Draw 5.61 | OFI 11.59. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (74%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AEK Athens FC 40% (last 10 home games) | OFI 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 20 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 74% | Draw 18% | OFI 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG AEK Athens FC 2.19 / OFI 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.240 / def 0.693 | OFI attack 0.673 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.61
OFI xG
41%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AEK Athens FC vs OFI FAQs
What time does AEK Athens FC vs OFI kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs OFI kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 28 January 2024 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
AEK Athens FC 3 - 0 OFI.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs OFI part of?
AEK Athens FC vs OFI is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 20) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 74% chance of winning, OFI a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both AEK Athens FC and OFI will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will AEK Athens FC vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (1.24) and OFI's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AEK Athens FC's last 45 games and OFI's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 3-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
74%
1.36
18%
5.61
9%
11.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
3 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.80
0.61
OFI xG
1.36
74%
Home win
5.61
18%
Draw
11.59
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
11%
8.96
Win to Nil
40%
2.50
1%
103.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AEK Athens FC vs OFI Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.61 for OFI, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 36W 11D 5L from 52 games, a 2.29 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 14W 19D 19L across 52 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 19W 5D 1L from their last 25 home games — 2.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 7W 8D 10L across their last 25 away games, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.02 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
OFI
Blended
AEK Athens FC (Home) vs OFI (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AEK Athens FC
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ AEK Athens FC vs OFI Form FAQs
What form are AEK Athens FC and OFI in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 36W 11D 5L in their last 52 games (2.29 PPG), while OFI have gone 14W 19D 19L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or OFI away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.48 PPG; OFI away: 1.16 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, OFI in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
AEK Athens FC have won the most recent 6 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Nov 2022, when AEK Athens FC won AEK Athens FC 3-0 OFI.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting OFI specifically: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
AEK Athens FC
0
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ AEK Athens FC vs OFI H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AEK Athens FC have won 8, OFI have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and OFI last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: AEK Athens FC 3-0 OFI.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 32%, OFI 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (AEK Athens FC) and 48% (OFI).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 68% of their matches; OFI in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AEK Athens FC vs OFI Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AEK Athens FC and OFI matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 44% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AEK Athens FC and OFI matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 48% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and OFI matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 72% of OFI's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat OFI 3-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 2.19 xG and OFI 0.61 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.24 / defence 0.69 against OFI attack 0.67 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 74% | Draw 18% | OFI 9%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 56%, OFI 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
OFI's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.