Aris Thessalonikis 0-2 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aris Thessalonikis face Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panetolikos make the trip to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Panetolikos have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Panetolikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panetolikos's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Aris Thessalonikis's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Panetolikos's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Aris Thessalonikis, who have won 6 of the last 8 meetings against Panetolikos — a 0D 2W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Aris Thessalonikis and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 48% versus Panetolikos 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 33% | Panetolikos 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 xG and Panetolikos 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.094 / defence 0.832 | Panetolikos attack 0.957 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.008. Data: 27 Aris Thessalonikis games / 27 Panetolikos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 48% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 23%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Panetolikos 4.35. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 20% | Panetolikos 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 48% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 / Panetolikos 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.094 / def 0.832 | Panetolikos attack 0.957 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Panetolikos xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Aris Thessalonikis 0 - 2 Panetolikos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 48% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
Record (8 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 6W | Draws 0 | Panetolikos 2W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Panetolikos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.96x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
48%
2.08
29%
3.47
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.09
0.80
Panetolikos xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
6%
15.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.80 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis come into this having played 33 games, going 17W 8D 8L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Panetolikos sit at 1.33 PPG from 33 outings (12W 8D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Panetolikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Aris Thessalonikis's home form reads 12W 2D 2L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Panetolikos have taken 1.50 points per game from 16 outings (6W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.79 scored and 0.91 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Panetolikos in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Panetolikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 17W 8D 8L in their last 33 games (1.79 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Panetolikos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.38 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 5-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Aris Thessalonikis
0
Draws
3
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, Panetolikos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Panetolikos 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 31%, Panetolikos 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Aris Thessalonikis and 25% for Panetolikos.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Panetolikos in 38%; Panetolikos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 44% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 25% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panetolikos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Aris Thessalonikis 0-2 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 xG and Panetolikos 0.80 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Panetolikos outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.09 / defence 0.83 against Panetolikos attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 48% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 23%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Panetolikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 33%, Panetolikos 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Panetolikos's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Panetolikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.