Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis host Kalamata at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kalamata — All Games: 3W 1D 4L from 8 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.25 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.62 per game and conceding 2.12. Conceding 2.12 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kalamata, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kalamata have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.65 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.25. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Aris Thessalonikis, 0 for Kalamata and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 3–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Kalamata in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 50% versus Kalamata 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aris Thessalonikis 75% | Kalamata 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 2.41 xG and Kalamata 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.082 / defence 1.036 | Kalamata attack 0.927 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.032. Kalamata bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Aris Thessalonikis games / 8 Kalamata games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 68% | Draw 19% | Kalamata 13%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Kalamata 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Aris Thessalonikis (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Kalamata 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 68% | Draw 19% | Kalamata 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 58% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 2.41 / Kalamata 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.082 / def 1.036 | Kalamata attack 0.927 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Kalamata xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 68% chance of winning, Kalamata a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata?
Record (1 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 1W | Draws 0 | Kalamata 0W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Kalamata (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 2.12 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 1.08x the league average against Kalamata's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalamata's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
68%
1.47
19%
5.28
13%
7.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
3.40
0.99
Kalamata xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.28
19%
Draw
7.67
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
9%
11.17
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
1%
85.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.99 for Kalamata, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 4W 1D 3L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalamata's form line: 3W 1D 4L from 8 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Kalamata is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aris Thessalonikis on 1.62 PPG, Kalamata on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kalamata have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Kalamata are on 1.62 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalamata in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Kalamata
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Kalamata have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Kalamata away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.50 PPG; Kalamata away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Aris Thessalonikis
0
Draws
0
Kalamata
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata?
From 1 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 1, Kalamata have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Kalamata 2-3 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 75%, Kalamata 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Aris Thessalonikis and 50% for Kalamata. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kalamata in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Kalamata away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Kalamata?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 50% of Kalamata's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Aris Thessalonikis's matches and 50% of Kalamata's.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kalamata in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.