VfL Wolfsburg 0-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as VfL Wolfsburg face SC Freiburg.

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Analysis & Preview

SC Freiburg travel to Volkswagen Arena to take on VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 December 2023 at 14:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

VfL Wolfsburg at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — VfL Wolfsburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

SC Freiburg — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, SC Freiburg have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VfL Wolfsburg 1.00 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, SC Freiburg 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2023, ended VfL Wolfsburg 0–2 SC Freiburg — a SC Freiburg win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

VfL Wolfsburg in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 51% versus SC Freiburg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 64% | SC Freiburg 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.72 xG and SC Freiburg 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.015 / defence 0.905 | SC Freiburg attack 0.785 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.859 / away 1.416. SC Freiburg's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from VfL Wolfsburg's last 47 games and SC Freiburg's last 47.

Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 52% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 20%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 1.93 | Draw 3.55 | SC Freiburg 5.02. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfL Wolfsburg 60% (last 10 home games) | SC Freiburg 50% (last 10 away games).

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