1. FC Heidenheim 3-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Heidenheim face SV Darmstadt 98.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim host SV Darmstadt 98 at Voith-Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 9 December 2023 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
1. FC Heidenheim — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, SV Darmstadt 98 have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Heidenheim at 1.00 PPG versus SV Darmstadt 98's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 1–0 SV Darmstadt 98 — a 1. FC Heidenheim win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 51% versus SV Darmstadt 98 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 57% | SV Darmstadt 98 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Heidenheim surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while SV Darmstadt 98 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.08 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.844 / defence 1.127 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.756 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.859 / away 1.416. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.326 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output up. SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating of 0.756 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 13 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 13.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 56% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 20%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.80 | Draw 4.08 | SV Darmstadt 98 5.05. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Heidenheim (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.08 / 1.21) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 30% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 14 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 56% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 2.08 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.844 / def 1.127 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.756 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.859 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.21
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Heidenheim 3 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 14) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 56% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 13 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.08
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.29
1.21
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
12%
8.01
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
2%
40.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.21 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 22W 12D 13L from 47 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 15L across 47 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.66 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 15W 5D 3L from their last 23 home games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 10W 3D 10L across their last 23 away games, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.38 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 22W 12D 13L in their last 47 games (1.66 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 10D 15L in their last 47 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.17 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.43 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. They cover more than one competition — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
1
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 4, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 April 2024: SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SV Darmstadt 98 see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 48%, SV Darmstadt 98 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 56% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 48% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 56% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Darmstadt 98 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 56% of SV Darmstadt 98's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out SV Darmstadt 98 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SV Darmstadt 98 3-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 2.08 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.84 / defence 1.13 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.76 / defence 1.33, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 56% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 20%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 57%, SV Darmstadt 98 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.66 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 14
All Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →