VfB Stuttgart 3-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 86% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 5 as VfB Stuttgart welcome SV Darmstadt 98 to Stuttgart Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 September 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stuttgart Arena this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SV Darmstadt 98 — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 68% versus SV Darmstadt 98 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 68% | SV Darmstadt 98 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 3.44 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.349 / defence 0.727 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.715 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 2.014 / away 1.526. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — their λ of 3.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing VfB Stuttgart's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. VfB Stuttgart's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 VfB Stuttgart games / 4 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 86% | Draw 10% | SV Darmstadt 98 4%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.16 | Draw 10.00 | SV Darmstadt 98 25.00. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (86%) — a 82pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 4.24. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.24 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 86% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: VfB Stuttgart 50% | SV Darmstadt 98 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stuttgart Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 86% | Draw 10% | SV Darmstadt 98 4% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 54% | xG VfB Stuttgart 3.44 / SV Darmstadt 98 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.349 / def 0.727 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.715 / def 1.268 | league avg home 2.014 / away 1.526 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (86%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.44
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
0.79
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
54%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Stuttgart Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Stuttgart Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 86% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 4% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.35) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 3.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.6%), 4-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
86%
1.17
10%
9.92
4%
22.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
4 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.44
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
4.24
0.79
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.17
86%
Home win
9.92
10%
Draw
22.68
4%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
3%
31.34
Win to Nil
39%
2.58
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 3.44 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 0.79 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 4.24.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 86%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 12W 10D 16L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Darmstadt 98's form line: 20W 8D 10L from 38 games, 1.79 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SV Darmstadt 98 are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfB Stuttgart.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 9W 2D 8L from 19 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.45 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 20W 8D 10L in their last 38 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.53 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.53 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
VfB Stuttgart
0
Draws
0
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 2 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when SV Darmstadt 98 1-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 58%, SV Darmstadt 98 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (VfB Stuttgart) and 53% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 in 32%; SV Darmstadt 98 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play SV Darmstadt 98?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 42% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 53% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 at Stuttgart Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 3.44 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.79 xG, a combined 4.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.35 / defence 0.73 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.71 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 86% | Draw 10% | SV Darmstadt 98 4%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 86%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 68%, SV Darmstadt 98 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with VfB Stuttgart winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.