Union Berlin 0-2 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union Berlin face 1899 Hoffenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Union Berlin welcome 1899 Hoffenheim to Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Union Berlin have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union Berlin 1.60 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Union Berlin, 1 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2023, ended Union Berlin 2–4 1899 Hoffenheim — a 1899 Hoffenheim win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 53% and 1899 Hoffenheim 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 55% | 1899 Hoffenheim 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.62 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.933 / defence 0.982 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.149 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 2.007 / away 1.531. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 38 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 38.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 35% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 40%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.85 | Draw 3.94 | 1899 Hoffenheim 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.62 / 1.73) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1899 Hoffenheim at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 30% (last 10 home games) | 1899 Hoffenheim 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 35% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Union Berlin 1.62 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.933 / def 0.982 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.149 / def 0.866 | league avg home 2.007 / away 1.531 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.73
1899 Hoffenheim xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Union Berlin 0 - 2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 5) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 35% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against 1899 Hoffenheim's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 38 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
35%
2.85
25%
3.94
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.35
1.73
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
6%
16.02
8%
12.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.73 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union Berlin come into this having played 38 games, going 20W 8D 10L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, 1899 Hoffenheim sit at 1.18 PPG from 38 outings (13W 6D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Union Berlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of 1899 Hoffenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union Berlin's home form reads 12W 6D 1L across their last 19 home games, a 2.21 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, 1899 Hoffenheim have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 19 away games (5W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union Berlin are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.53 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 71%.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Early Season
Union Berlin (Home) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Early Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Early Season
❓ Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 20W 8D 10L in their last 38 games (1.79 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 13W 6D 19L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.21 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or 1899 Hoffenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, 1899 Hoffenheim in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: 1899 Hoffenheim have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Feb 2025, when Union Berlin won 1899 Hoffenheim 0-4 Union Berlin.
Union Berlin's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
1
Draws
4
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 5, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 53%, 1899 Hoffenheim 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Union Berlin) and 58% (1899 Hoffenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Union Berlin's games and 68% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Union Berlin's matches and 58% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 84% of 1899 Hoffenheim's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1899 Hoffenheim cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat Union Berlin 0-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.62 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.73 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.15 / defence 0.87, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 35% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 40%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 55%, 1899 Hoffenheim 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with 1899 Hoffenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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