VfB Stuttgart 2-3 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as VfB Stuttgart face Eintracht Frankfurt.

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Match Analysis

VfB Stuttgart host Eintracht Frankfurt at MHPArena in Bundesliga (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, VfB Stuttgart stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

VfB Stuttgart's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Eintracht Frankfurt — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — VfB Stuttgart at 1.60 PPG versus Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 2 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended VfB Stuttgart 3–0 Eintracht Frankfurt — a VfB Stuttgart win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 95% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 60% and Eintracht Frankfurt 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 74% | Eintracht Frankfurt 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.13 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.317 / defence 0.984 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.018 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.434. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack rating of 1.317 — their 2.13 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 43 games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 43.

Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 51% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Frankfurt 23%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Eintracht Frankfurt 4.34. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.13 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 70% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% (last 10 away games).

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