Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Werder Bremen travel to Deutsche Bank Park to take on Eintracht Frankfurt in Bundesliga (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Werder Bremen stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Werder Bremen away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 home games and Werder Bremen's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1 for Werder Bremen and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Apr 2024, ended Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1 Werder Bremen — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 70% and Werder Bremen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 61% | Werder Bremen 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 3.21 xG and Werder Bremen 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.588 / defence 1.052 | Werder Bremen attack 1.267 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.434. Eintracht Frankfurt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.588 — their 3.21 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Werder Bremen's defence rating of 1.215 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Eintracht Frankfurt's projected output up. Werder Bremen have an above-average attack rating of 1.267, which lifts their away xG to 1.91. Data: built from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 44 games and Werder Bremen's last 44.

Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 62% | Draw 18% | Werder Bremen 20%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.60 | Draw 5.67 | Werder Bremen 5.03. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 88% | BTTS Yes probability 83% | Total xG 5.12. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 88% — a total xG of 5.12 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 83% — both xG figures (3.21 / 1.91) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 5.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 88% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 home games and Werder Bremen's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 83% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% (last 10 home games) | Werder Bremen 80% (last 10 away games).

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