Union Berlin 4-4 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 40%, yet in-form Union Berlin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this season.
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
VfB Stuttgart's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Union Berlin's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of VfB Stuttgart's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Union Berlin, 3 for VfB Stuttgart and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2024, ended 2–3 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 41% versus VfB Stuttgart 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 46% | VfB Stuttgart 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 0.92 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.730 / defence 0.766 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.036 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.441. Union Berlin's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Union Berlin's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Union Berlin games / 63 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 29% | Draw 31% | VfB Stuttgart 40%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | VfB Stuttgart 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union Berlin (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Union Berlin 50% | VfB Stuttgart 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 29% | Draw 31% | VfB Stuttgart 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Union Berlin 0.92 / VfB Stuttgart 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.730 / def 0.766 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.036 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.14
VfB Stuttgart xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Union Berlin 4 - 4 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 29% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (7 meetings): Union Berlin 2W | Draws 2 | VfB Stuttgart 3W.
What form are Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.73) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.04x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
29%
3.49
31%
3.19
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.07
1.14
VfB Stuttgart xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 14.5 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.14 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 18W 14D 31L from 63 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 34W 11D 18L across 63 games — 1.79 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours VfB Stuttgart by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Union Berlin heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 12W 7D 12L from 31 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 15W 6D 10L across 31 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.06 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 62%.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 18W 14D 31L in their last 63 games (1.08 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 34W 11D 18L in their last 63 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.39 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union Berlin
4
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Union Berlin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 52%, VfB Stuttgart 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Union Berlin) and 68% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play VfB Stuttgart?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 55% of VfB Stuttgart's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Union Berlin's matches and 68% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 4-4 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 0.92 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.14 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.14 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.73 / defence 0.77 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.04 / defence 0.86, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 29% | Draw 31% | VfB Stuttgart 40%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 46%, VfB Stuttgart 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.