Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Union Berlin welcome RB Leipzig to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RB Leipzig — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, RB Leipzig have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. RB Leipzig's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Union Berlin's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for Union Berlin, 3 for RB Leipzig and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with RB Leipzig winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
RB Leipzig trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 60% versus RB Leipzig 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Union Berlin 60% | RB Leipzig 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.66 xG and RB Leipzig 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.761 / defence 0.996 | RB Leipzig attack 0.942 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.375. Union Berlin's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Union Berlin games / 42 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 46% | Draw 25% | RB Leipzig 29%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | RB Leipzig 3.45. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Union Berlin dominate the H2H record, yet RB Leipzig are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RB Leipzig (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | RB Leipzig 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 46% | Draw 25% | RB Leipzig 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Union Berlin 1.66 / RB Leipzig 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.761 / def 0.996 | RB Leipzig attack 0.942 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.29
RB Leipzig xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026.
What competition is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig part of?
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 46% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Union Berlin and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
Record (10 meetings): Union Berlin 5W | Draws 2 | RB Leipzig 3W.
What form are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
46%
2.19
25%
3.99
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.95
1.29
RB Leipzig xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
6%
18.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.29 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin come into this having played 42 games, going 11W 13D 18L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, RB Leipzig sit at 1.90 PPG from 42 outings (25W 5D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Union Berlin's home form reads 5W 10D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, RB Leipzig have taken 1.43 points per game from 21 outings (9W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 2.10 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 11W 13D 18L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 25W 5D 12L in their last 42 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.19 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when RB Leipzig won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
2
Draws
3
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 5, RB Leipzig have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when RB Leipzig 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 67%, RB Leipzig 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Union Berlin and 62% for RB Leipzig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Union Berlin's games and 57% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Union Berlin's matches and 62% of RB Leipzig's.
Do Union Berlin and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.