Union Berlin 2-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Borussia Dortmund travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Borussia Dortmund — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Borussia Dortmund have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Union Berlin's 1 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 38% versus Borussia Dortmund 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 44% | Borussia Dortmund 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.77 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.933 / defence 0.844 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.791 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.680. Data: 39 Union Berlin games / 39 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 50% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 22%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Borussia Dortmund 4.55. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Dortmund (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 60% | Borussia Dortmund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 50% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Union Berlin 1.77 / Borussia Dortmund 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.933 / def 0.844 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.791 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.680 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Borussia Dortmund xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Union Berlin 2 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 50% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (6 meetings): Union Berlin 1W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 5W.
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.93x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.58
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.89
1.12
Borussia Dortmund xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
4%
26.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.12 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 11W 8D 20L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 21W 10D 8L from 39 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (9W 2D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 8W 7D 4L from 19 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.03 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 11W 8D 20L in their last 39 games (1.05 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 21W 10D 8L in their last 39 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.53 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2025, when Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
0
Draws
8
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 47%, Borussia Dortmund 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Union Berlin) and 58% (Borussia Dortmund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund in 32%; Union Berlin have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Union Berlin's games and 63% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Union Berlin's matches and 58% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out Borussia Dortmund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Borussia Dortmund 2-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.77 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.12 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.93 / defence 0.84 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.79 / defence 1.11, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 50% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 22%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 44%, Borussia Dortmund 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Union Berlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.