Werder Bremen 0-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Freiburg make the trip to Weserstadion to face Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Werder Bremen have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Weserstadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Weserstadion this season.
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Werder Bremen. A 0.70 PPG lead over SC Freiburg (1.90 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Werder Bremen, 3 for SC Freiburg and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 3–1 with Werder Bremen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 59% versus SC Freiburg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 62% | SC Freiburg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 0.99 xG and SC Freiburg 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.716 / defence 1.104 | SC Freiburg attack 0.981 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.680. Werder Bremen's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Werder Bremen games / 39 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 18% | Draw 27% | SC Freiburg 55%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | SC Freiburg 1.82. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
SC Freiburg lead the H2H ledger, but Werder Bremen carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Werder Bremen (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 70% | SC Freiburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 18% | Draw 27% | SC Freiburg 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Werder Bremen 0.99 / SC Freiburg 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.716 / def 1.104 | SC Freiburg attack 0.981 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.680 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.82
SC Freiburg xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Werder Bremen 0 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg part of?
Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 18% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg?
Record (6 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 2 | SC Freiburg 3W.
What form are Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.72x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.98x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
18%
5.54
27%
3.66
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.81
1.82
SC Freiburg xG
5.54
18%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
3%
34.17
20%
4.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.82 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 13W 11D 15L from 39 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 16L across 39 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.31 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 7W 5D 7L from 19 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 7W 2D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.36 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Early Season
SC Freiburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 games (1.28 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 14W 9D 16L in their last 39 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or SC Freiburg away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.37 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SC Freiburg have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 5-0 on 21 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
7
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 1, SC Freiburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 58%, SC Freiburg 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Werder Bremen and 68% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 37%; Werder Bremen have failed to score in 26% of games; SC Freiburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 42% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Werder Bremen's matches and 68% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out Werder Bremen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Werder Bremen 0-1 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 0.99 xG and SC Freiburg 1.82 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Werder Bremen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.72 / defence 1.10 against SC Freiburg attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 18% | Draw 27% | SC Freiburg 55%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 62%, SC Freiburg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.28 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.