SV Elversberg 1-2 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Elversberg and 1. FC Heidenheim meet at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Bundesliga, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
SV Elversberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SV Elversberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Elversberg's home record at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for SV Elversberg against 1.40 for 1. FC Heidenheim. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SV Elversberg lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SV Elversberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
1. FC Heidenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 63% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 69% | 1. FC Heidenheim 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.19 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.910 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.541. Data: 0 SV Elversberg games / 68 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 27% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Heidenheim 46%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2.17. 1. FC Heidenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Heidenheim at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: SV Elversberg 50% | 1. FC Heidenheim 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 27% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Heidenheim 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG SV Elversberg 1.19 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.910 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.541 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.61
1. FC Heidenheim xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 26 May 2025 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
SV Elversberg 1 - 2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Relegation Round fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 27% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SV Elversberg and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (1 meetings): SV Elversberg 0W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Heidenheim 0W.
What form are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SV Elversberg's attack rating (0.85) and 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.91x) against SV Elversberg's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 0/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
27%
3.69
26%
3.78
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.80
1.61
1. FC Heidenheim xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
5%
18.52
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.61 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Elversberg's recent record stands at 12W 8D 15L from 35 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for SV Elversberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Heidenheim, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 21L across 35 games — 0.86 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Elversberg by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Heidenheim heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SV Elversberg have managed 6W 4D 7L from 17 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record stands at 5W 3D 9L across 17 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.11 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Early Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 12W 8D 15L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 8W 6D 21L in their last 35 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.29 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Elversberg
1
Draws
1
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2025, when SV Elversberg 1-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 53%, 1. FC Heidenheim 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (SV Elversberg) and 53% (1. FC Heidenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 47% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SV Elversberg's matches and 53% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do SV Elversberg and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out SV Elversberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SV Elversberg 1-2 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Relegation Round, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.19 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.61 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 0/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 27% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Heidenheim 46%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 69%, 1. FC Heidenheim 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Heidenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.