SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 5W 2D 3L at Home Deluxe Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SC Paderborn 07 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Eintracht Frankfurt half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 57% and Eintracht Frankfurt 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 57% | Eintracht Frankfurt 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.47 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.662 / defence 0.954 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.997 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.897 / away 1.375. SC Paderborn 07's attack strength of 0.662 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 SC Paderborn 07 games / 42 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 40% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Frankfurt 33%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 40% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Frankfurt 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.47 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.662 / def 0.954 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.997 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.897 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 40% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.66x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eintracht Frankfurt's attack (1.00x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
40%
2.47
26%
3.79
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.78
1.31
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
8%
13.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.31 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 42 games, going 20W 11D 11L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eintracht Frankfurt sit at 1.31 PPG from 42 outings (14W 13D 15L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.31 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 12W 3D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Frankfurt have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (5W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.76 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 71%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 11D 11L in their last 42 games (1.69 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 14W 13D 15L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.86 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.10 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Eintracht Frankfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 19%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for SC Paderborn 07, 81% for Eintracht Frankfurt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SC Paderborn 07 and 71% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 81% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 71% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.