Hamburger SV 1-2 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Leipzig at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hamburger SV face RB Leipzig.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RB Leipzig make the trip to Volksparkstadion to face Hamburger SV in Bundesliga (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Hamburger SV have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hamburger SV's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
RB Leipzig (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, RB Leipzig have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.20 for RB Leipzig. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Hamburger SV, 1 for RB Leipzig and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Hamburger SV 1–2 RB Leipzig — a RB Leipzig win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
RB Leipzig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 62% versus RB Leipzig 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 66% | RB Leipzig 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hamburger SV surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while RB Leipzig have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that RB Leipzig surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Hamburger SV recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.36 xG and RB Leipzig 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.948 / defence 0.977 | RB Leipzig attack 1.080 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.356. Data: built from Hamburger SV's last 22 games and RB Leipzig's last 57.
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 35% | Draw 27% | RB Leipzig 38%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.85 | Draw 3.77 | RB Leipzig 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RB Leipzig as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hamburger SV's last 10 home games and RB Leipzig's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hamburger SV 70% (last 10 home games) | RB Leipzig 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 35% | Draw 27% | RB Leipzig 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Hamburger SV 1.36 / RB Leipzig 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.948 / def 0.977 | RB Leipzig attack 1.080 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.43
RB Leipzig xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig FAQs
What time does Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig?
Hamburger SV 1 - 2 RB Leipzig.
Where is Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig part of?
Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 35% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (0.95) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Leipzig's attack (1.08x) against Hamburger SV's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from Hamburger SV's last 22 games and RB Leipzig's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.77
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.79
1.43
RB Leipzig xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.43 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 22W 19D 15L from 56 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 15L across 56 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.59 for RB Leipzig. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 13W 11D 4L from their last 28 home games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 10W 9D 9L across their last 28 away games, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.71 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
Hamburger SV (Home) vs RB Leipzig (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hamburger SV
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig Form FAQs
What form are Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 22W 19D 15L in their last 56 games (1.52 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 24W 17D 15L in their last 56 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or RB Leipzig away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.79 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig, the earliest from October 2025. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: RB Leipzig have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RB Leipzig won RB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SV on 13 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Hamburger SV
0
Draws
3
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Hamburger SV have won 0, RB Leipzig have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: RB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 68%, RB Leipzig 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Hamburger SV) and 50% (RB Leipzig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig in 46%; RB Leipzig in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Hamburger SV's games and 43% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Hamburger SV's matches and 50% of RB Leipzig's.
Do Hamburger SV and RB Leipzig matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 61% of RB Leipzig's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Leipzig edge out Hamburger SV 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat Hamburger SV 1-2 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.36 xG and RB Leipzig 1.43 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against RB Leipzig attack 1.08 / defence 0.83, drawn from 22/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 35% | Draw 27% | RB Leipzig 38%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 66%, RB Leipzig 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.52 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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