Werder Bremen 2-0 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Weserstadion plays host to Werder Bremen versus 1. FC Heidenheim in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Weserstadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Werder Bremen are significantly better at Weserstadion than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.30 PPG for Werder Bremen against 0.30 for 1. FC Heidenheim. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Werder Bremen lead 2W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
1. FC Heidenheim — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 49% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 61% | 1. FC Heidenheim 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.35 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.700 / defence 1.184 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.825 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.391. Werder Bremen's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Werder Bremen games / 57 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 36%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 40% | 1. FC Heidenheim 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Werder Bremen 1.35 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.700 / def 1.184 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.825 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.36
1. FC Heidenheim xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Werder Bremen 2 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 36% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (7 meetings): Werder Bremen 2W | Draws 2 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3W.
What form are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.70x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.82x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
36%
2.81
28%
3.54
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.71
1.36
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
9%
10.92
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.36 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 18W 16D 23L from 57 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 36L across 57 games — 0.72 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Werder Bremen by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Heidenheim heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 8W 10D 10L from 28 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record stands at 6W 4D 18L across 28 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.00 scored and 2.07 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 18W 16D 23L in their last 57 games (1.23 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 11D 36L in their last 57 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.21 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 3-0 on 1 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
3
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 8 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 3, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Werder Bremen 2-0 1. FC Heidenheim.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 46%, 1. FC Heidenheim 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Werder Bremen) and 61% (1. FC Heidenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen have failed to score in 36% of games; 1. FC Heidenheim in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 57% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Werder Bremen's matches and 61% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.35 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.36 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.70 / defence 1.18 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 36%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 61%, 1. FC Heidenheim 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.