Hamburger SV 1-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hamburger SV face FC Augsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC Augsburg travel to Volksparkstadion to take on Hamburger SV in Bundesliga (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hamburger SV stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hamburger SV's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, FC Augsburg have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Augsburg's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hamburger SV 1.30 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Hamburger SV have won 0, FC Augsburg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Hamburger SV 0–1 FC Augsburg — a FC Augsburg win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 64% versus FC Augsburg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 66% | FC Augsburg 56%). Note also that FC Augsburg surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Hamburger SV recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.43 xG and FC Augsburg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.805 / defence 1.000 | FC Augsburg attack 0.824 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.393. Data: built from Hamburger SV's last 27 games and FC Augsburg's last 61.
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 43% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 30%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.30 | Draw 3.78 | FC Augsburg 3.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hamburger SV 80% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 28 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 43% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Hamburger SV 1.43 / FC Augsburg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.805 / def 1.000 | FC Augsburg attack 0.824 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.15
FC Augsburg xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg FAQs
What time does Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg?
Hamburger SV 1 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg part of?
Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 28) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 43% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (0.81) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hamburger SV's last 27 games and FC Augsburg's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
43%
2.30
26%
3.78
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.58
1.15
FC Augsburg xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.15 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hamburger SV come into this having played 61 games, going 23W 20D 18L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.21 PPG from 61 outings (20W 14D 27L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hamburger SV on 1.46 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hamburger SV's home form reads 13W 11D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.11 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
Hamburger SV (Home) vs FC Augsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hamburger SV
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg Form FAQs
What form are Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 23W 20D 18L in their last 61 games (1.46 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 20W 14D 27L in their last 61 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or FC Augsburg away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.67 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2025. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Hamburger SV have won 0, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Hamburger SV 1-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 67%, FC Augsburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Hamburger SV and 60% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Hamburger SV's games and 50% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hamburger SV's matches and 60% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 73% of FC Augsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 28, as Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.43 xG and FC Augsburg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.81 / defence 1.00 against FC Augsburg attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 43% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 30%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 66%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.46 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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