Union Berlin 1-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to face Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
FC St. Pauli's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Union Berlin, 1.20 for FC St. Pauli — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC St. Pauli in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Union Berlin 2W, FC St. Pauli 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Union Berlin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 52% versus FC St. Pauli 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 52% | FC St. Pauli 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.48 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.847 / defence 1.112 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.686 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.446. Data: 61 Union Berlin games / 61 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 46% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 28%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | FC St. Pauli 3.57. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | FC St. Pauli 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 46% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Union Berlin 1.48 / FC St. Pauli 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.847 / def 1.112 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.686 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.711 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.10
FC St. Pauli xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
Union Berlin 1 - 1 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 46% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli?
Record (3 meetings): Union Berlin 2W | Draws 0 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.69x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
46%
2.20
26%
3.78
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.58
1.10
FC St. Pauli xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
6%
15.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.10 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 18W 18D 25L from 61 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 33L across 61 games — 0.92 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Union Berlin against 0.92 for FC St. Pauli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 9W 12D 9L from 30 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 7W 5D 18L across 30 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union Berlin are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 0.85 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 18W 18D 25L in their last 61 games (1.18 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 14W 14D 33L in their last 61 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or FC St. Pauli away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.30 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC St. Pauli won 3-0 on 26 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
1
Draws
1
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Union Berlin 1-1 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 63%, FC St. Pauli 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Union Berlin) and 43% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 27% of games; FC St. Pauli in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 43% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Union Berlin's recent games and 43% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 28, as Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.48 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.10 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.69 / defence 1.02, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 46% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 28%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 52%, FC St. Pauli 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.18 PPG, FC St. Pauli 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.