FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to MEWA ARENA to take on FSV Mainz 05. The game is scheduled for Friday 25 October 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at MEWA ARENA this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FSV Mainz 05 1.50 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FSV Mainz 05 trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 58% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 46% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.17 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.723 / defence 0.971 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.822 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.685. FSV Mainz 05's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 FSV Mainz 05 games / 41 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 31% | Draw 30% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 39%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 50% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 31% | Draw 30% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.17 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.723 / def 0.971 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.822 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.685 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 25 October 2024 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 31% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (6 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 2W | Draws 4 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FSV Mainz 05's attack at 0.72x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
31%
3.22
30%
3.37
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.52
1.34
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
8%
12.36
12%
8.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.34 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, FSV Mainz 05 have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 9W 16D 16L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 10W 13D 18L from 41 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.05 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 7D 10L from 20 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.61 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 71%.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 9W 16D 16L in their last 41 games (1.05 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 10W 13D 18L in their last 41 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.15 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when FSV Mainz 05 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FSV Mainz 05
6
Draws
1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 45%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (FSV Mainz 05) and 70% (Borussia Mönchengladbach).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 75% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 70% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 8, as FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.17 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.34 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.72 / defence 0.97 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.82 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 31% | Draw 30% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 39%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 46%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.05 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.