FC St. Pauli 0-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 24 as FC St. Pauli welcome Borussia Dortmund to Millerntor-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli at Millerntor-Stadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (FC St. Pauli) versus 1.10 (Borussia Dortmund). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC St. Pauli, 1 for Borussia Dortmund and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 47% versus Borussia Dortmund 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 46% | Borussia Dortmund 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.21 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.598 / defence 0.919 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.881 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.344. FC St. Pauli's attack strength of 0.598 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Borussia Dortmund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing FC St. Pauli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 FC St. Pauli games / 57 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 37% | Draw 32% | Borussia Dortmund 31%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Borussia Dortmund 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC St. Pauli 20% | Borussia Dortmund 80%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 37% | Draw 32% | Borussia Dortmund 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.21 / Borussia Dortmund 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.598 / def 0.919 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.881 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Borussia Dortmund xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund?
FC St. Pauli 0 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 37% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (1 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 1W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC St. Pauli's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
37%
2.72
32%
3.10
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.30
1.09
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.09 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 57 games, going 26W 12D 19L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.67 PPG from 57 outings (27W 14D 16L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 1.58 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 13W 8D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.36 points per game from 28 outings (10W 8D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 1.95 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 67%.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 26W 12D 19L in their last 57 games (1.58 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 27W 14D 16L in their last 57 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.68 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
3
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 0, Borussia Dortmund have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 3-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 43%, Borussia Dortmund 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC St. Pauli) and 61% (Borussia Dortmund).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of FC St. Pauli's games and 68% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 61% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat FC St. Pauli 0-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.21 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.09 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.60 / defence 0.92 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.88 / defence 1.21, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 37% | Draw 32% | Borussia Dortmund 31%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Borussia Dortmund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 46%, Borussia Dortmund 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.58 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.