FC Augsburg 3-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 6 as FC Augsburg welcome VfL Wolfsburg to WWK Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 October 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Augsburg — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Augsburg have posted 2W 3D 5L at WWK Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfL Wolfsburg's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour VfL Wolfsburg — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of FC Augsburg: 4 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for VfL Wolfsburg, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with FC Augsburg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC Augsburg and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
FC Augsburg trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 54% and VfL Wolfsburg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 59% | VfL Wolfsburg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.28 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.904 / defence 1.209 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.937 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.642. Data: 39 FC Augsburg games / 39 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 26% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 51%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | VfL Wolfsburg 1.96. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
FC Augsburg dominate the H2H record, yet VfL Wolfsburg are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma. Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 61% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | VfL Wolfsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
Multiple data sources are pointing in different directions on the likely outcome — reduce stake size to reflect the analytical uncertainty.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 26% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Augsburg 1.28 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.904 / def 1.209 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.937 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.642 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.86
VfL Wolfsburg xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
FC Augsburg 3 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 26% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (8 meetings): FC Augsburg 4W | Draws 3 | VfL Wolfsburg 1W.
What form are FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.90x the league average against VfL Wolfsburg's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
26%
3.81
23%
4.39
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.14
1.86
VfL Wolfsburg xG
3.81
26%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
16%
6.42
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
4%
24.49
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.86 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 12W 10D 17L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 12W 12D 15L from 39 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.18 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 9W 3D 7L from 19 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.62 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg in 67%.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 12W 10D 17L in their last 39 games (1.18 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.21 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Augsburg have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when FC Augsburg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Augsburg
3
Draws
1
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 6, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 58%, VfL Wolfsburg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (FC Augsburg) and 58% (VfL Wolfsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 32% of games; VfL Wolfsburg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FC Augsburg's games and 58% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of FC Augsburg's matches and 58% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.28 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.86 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Augsburg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfL Wolfsburg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.94 / defence 0.88, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 26% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 51%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual FC Augsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 59%, VfL Wolfsburg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.18 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.