FC Augsburg 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 26 as FC Augsburg welcome VfL Wolfsburg to WWK Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 March 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Augsburg — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Augsburg have posted 4W 3D 3L at WWK Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Augsburg at 1.90 PPG versus VfL Wolfsburg's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for FC Augsburg, 1 for VfL Wolfsburg and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Augsburg trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 58% and VfL Wolfsburg 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 58% | VfL Wolfsburg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 0.91 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.693 / defence 0.759 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.195 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.388. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Augsburg's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 FC Augsburg games / 59 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 26% | Draw 31% | VfL Wolfsburg 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: FC Augsburg 40% | VfL Wolfsburg 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 26% | Draw 31% | VfL Wolfsburg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG FC Augsburg 0.91 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.693 / def 0.759 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.195 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
VfL Wolfsburg xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
FC Augsburg 1 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 26% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (7 meetings): FC Augsburg 3W | Draws 3 | VfL Wolfsburg 1W.
What form are FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.69x the league average against VfL Wolfsburg's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
26%
3.89
31%
3.21
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.17
1.26
VfL Wolfsburg xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
7%
13.68
17%
5.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.3 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.26 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 19W 17D 23L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 20W 15D 24L from 59 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.25 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (11W 10D 8L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 11W 5D 13L from 29 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.53 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg in 69%.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 19W 17D 23L in their last 59 games (1.25 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 20W 15D 24L in their last 59 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.48 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Augsburg have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when FC Augsburg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Augsburg
3
Draws
1
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 6, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 62%, VfL Wolfsburg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (FC Augsburg) and 59% (VfL Wolfsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Augsburg's games and 62% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of FC Augsburg's matches and 59% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 0.91 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.26 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VfL Wolfsburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.69 / defence 0.76 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.20 / defence 0.87, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 26% | Draw 31% | VfL Wolfsburg 43%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FC Augsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 58%, VfL Wolfsburg 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.25 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.