FC Augsburg 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Augsburg lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with FC Augsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 66% and Bayer Leverkusen 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Augsburg 58% | Bayer Leverkusen 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.22 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.935 / defence 1.070 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.339 / defence 0.689. League average goals — home 1.888 / away 1.291. Bayer Leverkusen's defence strength of 0.689 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.339 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 FC Augsburg games / 50 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 23% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 51%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.96. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 80% | Bayer Leverkusen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 23% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Augsburg 1.22 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.935 / def 1.070 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.339 / def 0.689 | league avg home 1.888 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Bayer Leverkusen xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
FC Augsburg 0 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 23% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (4 meetings): FC Augsburg 2W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 2W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.94x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.34x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
23%
4.28
26%
3.83
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.06
1.85
Bayer Leverkusen xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
16%
6.35
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
4%
27.17
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.85 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 13W 13D 24L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 27W 11D 12L from 50 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.46 PPG from 24 outings (9W 8D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — FC Augsburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 11W 7D 6L from 24 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.06 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 13W 13D 24L in their last 50 games (1.04 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 27W 11D 12L in their last 50 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.46 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.67 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Augsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 22 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Augsburg
0
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 4, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 67%, Bayer Leverkusen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Augsburg) and 67% (Bayer Leverkusen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Augsburg's games and 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Augsburg's matches and 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out FC Augsburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat FC Augsburg 0-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.22 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.85 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Augsburg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bayer Leverkusen landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.34 / defence 0.69, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 23% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 51%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 58%, Bayer Leverkusen 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.