Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 43%, yet in-form VfB Stuttgart provide a compelling counter-argument — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome VfB Stuttgart to BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 January 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BORUSSIA-PARK, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour VfB Stuttgart — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, VfB Stuttgart 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 66% and VfB Stuttgart 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 72% | VfB Stuttgart 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.72 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.034 / defence 1.025 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.065 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.273. Data: 50 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 50 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 43% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 29%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | VfB Stuttgart 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VfB Stuttgart (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% | VfB Stuttgart 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 43% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.72 / VfB Stuttgart 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.034 / def 1.025 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.065 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.39
VfB Stuttgart xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 43% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (4 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 2W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.68
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.11
1.39
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
5%
19.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.39 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 15W 15D 20L from 50 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 19L across 50 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.20 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 12W 5D 7L from 24 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 7W 5D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.70 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 64%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 15W 15D 20L in their last 50 games (1.20 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 20W 11D 19L in their last 50 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.71 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 50%, VfB Stuttgart 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 75% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 67% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 75% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat VfB Stuttgart 3-1 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.72 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.39 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.06 / defence 0.93, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 43% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 29%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 72%, VfB Stuttgart 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.20 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.