Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome Union Berlin to Deutsche Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 March 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt at Deutsche Bank Park this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Berlin — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, Union Berlin 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Frankfurt 69% versus Union Berlin 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 62% | Union Berlin 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.76 xG and Union Berlin 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.289 / defence 1.074 | Union Berlin attack 0.757 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.401. Eintracht Frankfurt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 2.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union Berlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.395 — this is suppressing Eintracht Frankfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 58 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 71% | Draw 17% | Union Berlin 13%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Union Berlin 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.76 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% | Union Berlin 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Mar 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 71% | Draw 17% | Union Berlin 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 64% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.76 / Union Berlin 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.289 / def 1.074 | Union Berlin attack 0.757 / def 1.395 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.76
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Union Berlin xG
64%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 2 Union Berlin.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 71% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin?
Record (6 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 2W | Draws 2 | Union Berlin 2W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (1.29) and Union Berlin's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
71%
1.41
17%
5.98
13%
7.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.76
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.90
1.14
Union Berlin xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.98
17%
Draw
7.98
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
6%
15.86
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
1%
126.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.76 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.14 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 23W 20D 15L from 58 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 31L across 58 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Union Berlin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 14W 11D 4L from 29 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 4W 6D 19L across 29 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 0.93 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 23W 20D 15L in their last 58 games (1.53 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 15W 12D 31L in their last 58 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Union Berlin away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.83 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
4
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, Union Berlin have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Union Berlin 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 72%, Union Berlin 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 41% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 72% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent matches and 28% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 41% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.76 xG and Union Berlin 1.14 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Union Berlin outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.29 / defence 1.07 against Union Berlin attack 0.76 / defence 1.40, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 71% | Draw 17% | Union Berlin 13%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Union Berlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 62%, Union Berlin 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Union Berlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.