Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 37%, yet in-form Borussia Mönchengladbach provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deutsche Bank Park plays host to Eintracht Frankfurt versus Borussia Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Deutsche Bank Park this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Eintracht Frankfurt, 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2021, ended 3–2 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Eintracht Frankfurt — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 73% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 54% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.783 / defence 1.012 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.037 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.415. Eintracht Frankfurt's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 66 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 37% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 36%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Mönchengladbach (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 50% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 37% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.783 / def 1.012 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.037 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 37% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (1 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 1W | Draws 0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 0.78x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (1.04x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
37%
2.71
27%
3.74
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.98
1.49
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
8%
11.98
8%
12.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.49 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 26W 22D 18L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 24W 18D 24L from 66 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.36 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1.67 PPG from 33 outings (14W 13D 6L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 9W 10D 14L from 33 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.70 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 70%.
Last 66 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 26W 22D 18L in their last 66 games (1.52 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 24W 18D 24L in their last 66 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.67 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Eintracht Frankfurt go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-0 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Eintracht Frankfurt, 67% for Borussia Mönchengladbach — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 70% (Borussia Mönchengladbach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 67% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 70% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach finished level at 1-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.49 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.78 / defence 1.01 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.04 / defence 1.17, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 37% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 36%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 54%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.52 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.