Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees 1. FC Köln travel to Deutsche Bank Park to take on Eintracht Frankfurt. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Deutsche Bank Park, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Deutsche Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Köln — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Köln away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Eintracht Frankfurt) versus 1.50 (1. FC Köln). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eintracht Frankfurt register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, 1. FC Köln in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Eintracht Frankfurt, 0 for 1. FC Köln and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2021, ended 2–0 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 82% and 1. FC Köln 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 59% | 1. FC Köln 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.917 / defence 0.887 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.003 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.294. Data: 39 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 39 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 41% | Draw 33% | 1. FC Köln 26%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | 1. FC Köln 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | 1. FC Köln 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 41% | Draw 33% | 1. FC Köln 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 / 1. FC Köln 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.917 / def 0.887 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.003 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.15
1. FC Köln xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 41% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln?
Record (2 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 1W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Köln 0W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (0.92) and 1. FC Köln's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
41%
2.46
33%
3.00
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.62
1.15
1. FC Köln xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
6%
16.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.15 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 39 games, going 16W 16D 7L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.13 PPG from 39 outings (11W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 10W 9D 0L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Eintracht Frankfurt are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.18 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
1. FC Köln
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 16W 16D 7L in their last 39 games (1.64 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 11W 11D 17L in their last 39 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 2.05 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2023, when 1. FC Köln won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting 1. FC Köln specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
5
Draws
3
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, 1. FC Köln have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 84%, 1. FC Köln at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 58% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 84% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 58% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 58% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 6, as Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.15 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against 1. FC Köln attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 41% | Draw 33% | 1. FC Köln 26%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 59%, 1. FC Köln 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.