Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburger SV – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 47%, yet in-form Hamburger SV provide a compelling counter-argument — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borussia-Park plays host to Borussia Mönchengladbach versus Hamburger SV in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 4W 3D 3L at Borussia-Park — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borussia-Park. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Borussia-Park than their overall form suggests.
Hamburger SV's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Hamburger SV arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W, Hamburger SV 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 45% versus Hamburger SV 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | Hamburger SV 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.90 xG and Hamburger SV 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.867 / defence 1.272 | Hamburger SV attack 0.843 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.897 / away 1.375. Data: 42 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 42 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 47% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 30%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Hamburger SV 3.33. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hamburger SV (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% | Hamburger SV 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburger SV | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 47% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.90 / Hamburger SV 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.867 / def 1.272 | Hamburger SV attack 0.843 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.897 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Hamburger SV xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburger SV is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Borussia-Park.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburger SV part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 47% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hamburger SV?
Record (2 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 2 | Hamburger SV 0W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hamburger SV in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (0.84x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
47%
2.11
23%
4.33
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.38
1.47
Hamburger SV xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
15%
6.70
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
4%
22.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.47 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 10W 12D 20L from 42 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 19L across 42 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 1.12 for Hamburger SV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 6W 7D 8L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hamburger SV's away record stands at 4W 4D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.12 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 10W 12D 20L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Hamburger SV away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.19 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
2
Draws
0
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hamburger SV?
From 2 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, Hamburger SV have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Hamburger SV 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 43%, Hamburger SV 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 62% (Hamburger SV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 33% of games; Hamburger SV in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Hamburger SV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 57% of Hamburger SV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 62% of Hamburger SV's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.