Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-1 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees FC Schalke 04 travel to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK to take on Borussia Mönchengladbach. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2020, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 3W 3D 2L from 8 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.62 goals per game, with 1.62 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 0L across 4 games at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Schalke 04 have recorded 0W 3D 5L from 8 outings — 0.38 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.62 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04 away from home this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 4.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.12 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.38. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 75% and FC Schalke 04 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% | FC Schalke 04 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.95 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.856 / defence 0.907 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.608 / defence 1.777. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.671. FC Schalke 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.777 — this is suppressing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 8 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 58% | Draw 27% | FC Schalke 04 14%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | FC Schalke 04 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (58%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Mönchengladbach 75% | FC Schalke 04 25%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2020, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 58% | Draw 27% | FC Schalke 04 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.95 / FC Schalke 04 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.856 / def 0.907 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.608 / def 1.777 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.671 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
0.92
FC Schalke 04 xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 28 November 2020 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 - 1 FC Schalke 04.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 58% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04 in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.62 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 0W-3D-5L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 3.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 0.86x the league average against FC Schalke 04's defence at 1.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
58%
1.71
27%
3.64
14%
7.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.88
0.92
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
7.10
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
2%
50.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0.92 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 3D 2L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Schalke 04 sit at 0.38 PPG from 8 outings (0W 3D 5L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of FC Schalke 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 1W 3D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Schalke 04 have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 0.62 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 0W 3D 5L in their last 8 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Nov 2020, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
2
Draws
0
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04?
From 4 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 75%, FC Schalke 04 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 100% (FC Schalke 04).
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play FC Schalke 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 25% of FC Schalke 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 100% of FC Schalke 04's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Mönchengladbach run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Schalke 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat FC Schalke 04 4-1 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.95 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.92 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.86 / defence 0.91 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.61 / defence 1.78, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 58% | Draw 27% | FC Schalke 04 14%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 50%, FC Schalke 04 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.38. Form held, and they took the win. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.