Borussia Mönchengladbach 5-2 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome 1. FC Köln to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Köln have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Borussia Mönchengladbach) versus 1.30 (1. FC Köln). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Mönchengladbach register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, 1. FC Köln in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 3 for 1. FC Köln and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% and 1. FC Köln 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | 1. FC Köln 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.59 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.069 / defence 0.801 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.199 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.367. Data: 42 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 42 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 43% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 31%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | 1. FC Köln 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | 1. FC Köln 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 43% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.59 / 1. FC Köln 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.069 / def 0.801 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.199 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.31
1. FC Köln xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 5 - 2 1. FC Köln.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 43% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln?
Record (4 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 3W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Köln's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.76
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.90
1.31
1. FC Köln xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
6%
15.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.31 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 42 games, going 15W 12D 15L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.55 PPG from 42 outings (17W 14D 11L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.36 PPG, 1. FC Köln on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 11W 4D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 1.29 points per game from 21 outings (6W 9D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.57 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 69%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 15W 12D 15L in their last 42 games (1.36 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 17W 14D 11L in their last 42 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.76 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when 1. FC Köln won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting 1. FC Köln specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3
Draws
4
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, 1. FC Köln have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when 1. FC Köln 3-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 67%, 1. FC Köln at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 52% (1. FC Köln). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 81% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 52% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Mönchengladbach run riot with a 5-2 hammering of 1. FC Köln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat 1. FC Köln 5-2 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.59 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.31 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.07 / defence 0.80 against 1. FC Köln attack 1.20 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 43% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 31%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%, 1. FC Köln 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.36 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.