Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 meet at BayArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 14 January 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at BayArena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.40 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bayer Leverkusen register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, FSV Mainz 05 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Bayer Leverkusen, 2 for FSV Mainz 05 and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 64% and FSV Mainz 05 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 74% | FSV Mainz 05 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.21 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.408 / defence 0.993 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.290 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.460. Bayer Leverkusen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.408 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FSV Mainz 05 have an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Bayer Leverkusen games / 50 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 46% | Draw 21% | FSV Mainz 05 33%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 2.17 | Draw 4.76 | FSV Mainz 05 3.03. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.08 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 76%. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 90% | FSV Mainz 05 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Jan 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 46% | Draw 21% | FSV Mainz 05 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 76% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.21 / FSV Mainz 05 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.408 / def 0.993 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.290 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.87
FSV Mainz 05 xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 14 January 2025 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?
Bayer Leverkusen 1 - 0 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 46% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 33% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (6 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 4W | Draws 0 | FSV Mainz 05 2W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bayer Leverkusen's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against FSV Mainz 05's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (1.29x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 7.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
46%
2.18
21%
4.71
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
4.08
1.87
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.14
Clean Sheet
15%
6.48
11%
9.16
Win to Nil
7%
14.10
4%
27.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.87 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bayer Leverkusen come into this having played 50 games, going 38W 11D 1L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FSV Mainz 05 sit at 1.26 PPG from 50 outings (15W 18D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.24 PPG clear of FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bayer Leverkusen's home form reads 18W 5D 1L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.46 PPG return.
Away from home, FSV Mainz 05 have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (5W 11D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.58 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.38 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 38W 11D 1L in their last 50 games (2.50 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 15W 18D 17L in their last 50 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 2.46 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or FSV Mainz 05 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FSV Mainz 05 in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 0-3 on 27 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bayer Leverkusen
2
Draws
2
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 62%, FSV Mainz 05 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Bayer Leverkusen and 62% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 67% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 62% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out FSV Mainz 05 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat FSV Mainz 05 1-0 at BayArena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.21 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.87 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bayer Leverkusen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FSV Mainz 05 landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.41 / defence 0.99 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.29 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 46% | Draw 21% | FSV Mainz 05 33%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 74%, FSV Mainz 05 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.