1899 Hoffenheim 0-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim host FC St. Pauli at PreZero Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at PreZero Arena this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, 1899 Hoffenheim have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1899 Hoffenheim register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC St. Pauli in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1, FC St. Pauli 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
1899 Hoffenheim in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1899 Hoffenheim 67% versus FC St. Pauli 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 63% | FC St. Pauli 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 2.63 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.365 / defence 0.809 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.741 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.391. 1899 Hoffenheim carry an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — their λ of 2.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 1899 Hoffenheim games / 57 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 75% | Draw 16% | FC St. Pauli 9%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.33 | Draw 6.25 | FC St. Pauli 11.11. The model has a clear lean to 1899 Hoffenheim (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 60% | FC St. Pauli 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 75% | Draw 16% | FC St. Pauli 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 53% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 2.63 / FC St. Pauli 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.365 / def 0.809 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.741 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.63
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
0.83
FC St. Pauli xG
53%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
1899 Hoffenheim 0 - 1 FC St. Pauli.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC St. Pauli part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 75% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC St. Pauli?
Record (3 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 1W | Draws 0 | FC St. Pauli 2W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC St. Pauli in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates 1899 Hoffenheim's attack at 1.36x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 2.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
75%
1.33
16%
6.19
9%
11.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.63
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.47
0.83
FC St. Pauli xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.19
16%
Draw
11.39
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
7%
13.92
Win to Nil
33%
3.07
1%
158.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 2.63 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 0.83 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1899 Hoffenheim's recent record stands at 21W 15D 21L from 57 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 31L across 57 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1899 Hoffenheim by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC St. Pauli heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1899 Hoffenheim have managed 12W 5D 11L from 28 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 6W 5D 17L across 28 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1899 Hoffenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 0.88 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 21W 15D 21L in their last 57 games (1.37 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 13W 13D 31L in their last 57 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or FC St. Pauli away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.46 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2025, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
1899 Hoffenheim
0
Draws
3
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 0-1 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 68%, FC St. Pauli 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (1899 Hoffenheim) and 46% (FC St. Pauli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 46% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 46% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC St. Pauli defy the odds to beat 1899 Hoffenheim 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat 1899 Hoffenheim 0-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 2.63 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.83 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.36 / defence 0.81 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.74 / defence 1.12, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 75% | Draw 16% | FC St. Pauli 9%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a FC St. Pauli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 63%, FC St. Pauli 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, 1899 Hoffenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with FC St. Pauli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.