SV Wehen 1-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 make the trip to BRITA-Arena to face SV Wehen in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Friday 23 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
SV Wehen's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, SV Wehen have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — SV Wehen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SC Paderborn 07 are 0.70 PPG clear of SV Wehen over their recent games (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from SV Wehen's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of SV Wehen's games and 80% of SC Paderborn 07's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for SV Wehen, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2023, ended SV Wehen 1–2 SC Paderborn 07 — a SC Paderborn 07 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SV Wehen — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Wehen 58% and SC Paderborn 07 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 42% | SC Paderborn 07 75%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SV Wehen surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while SC Paderborn 07 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that SC Paderborn 07 surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while SV Wehen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.23 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.838 / defence 1.059 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.983 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.370. Data: built from SV Wehen's last 22 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 56.
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 33% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 42%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 3.08 | Draw 3.86 | SC Paderborn 07 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Wehen 70% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 23 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 33% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG SV Wehen 1.23 / SC Paderborn 07 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.838 / def 1.059 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.983 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
1.43
SC Paderborn 07 xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 FAQs
What time does SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 23 February 2024 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07?
SV Wehen 1 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 23) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 33% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SV Wehen's attack rating (0.84) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.98x) against SV Wehen's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from SV Wehen's last 22 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
33%
3.08
26%
3.86
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
2.66
1.43
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
8%
12.81
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for SV Wehen and 1.43 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, SV Wehen have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 9W 6D 9L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
SC Paderborn 07's form line: 10W 5D 9L from 24 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for SV Wehen against 1.46 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SV Wehen have posted 1.73 PPG from their last 11 home games (5W 4D 2L).
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 2D 4L from their last 11 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
SV Wehen are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.50 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 67%.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
SV Wehen (Home) vs SC Paderborn 07 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Wehen
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 Form FAQs
What form are SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 9W 6D 9L in their last 24 games (1.38 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 10W 5D 9L in their last 24 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SV Wehen's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.73 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 23 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Wehen
0
Draws
2
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Wehen have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 February 2024: SV Wehen 1-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for SV Wehen, 73% for SC Paderborn 07 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (SV Wehen) and 82% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SV Wehen's games and 73% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 36% of SV Wehen's matches and 82% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SV Wehen and SC Paderborn 07 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 91% of SC Paderborn 07's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out SV Wehen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat SV Wehen 1-2 at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 1.23 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.43 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.84 / defence 1.06 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.98 / defence 0.92, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 33% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 42%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 42%, SC Paderborn 07 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Wehen 1.38 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Wehen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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