SV Wehen 1-3 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Wehen at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Wehen host Eintracht Braunschweig at BRITA-Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 16). Kick-off is Friday 8 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
SV Wehen — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, SV Wehen have posted 4W 3D 1L from their last 8 home games — 1.88 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from their last 8 home games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.88 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SV Wehen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Eintracht Braunschweig have recorded 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Eintracht Braunschweig away from home: 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
SV Wehen are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
SV Wehen in-play tendencies (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Wehen 53% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 41% | Eintracht Braunschweig 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.28 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.681 / defence 0.890 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.626 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.430. SV Wehen's attack rating of 0.681 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.28. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating of 0.626 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from SV Wehen's last 15 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 49.
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 48% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Braunschweig 23%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 2.10 | Draw 3.39 | Eintracht Braunschweig 4.36. SV Wehen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Wehen are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Wehen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SV Wehen 50% (last 8 home games) | Eintracht Braunschweig 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 16 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 8 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 48% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Braunschweig 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG SV Wehen 1.28 / Eintracht Braunschweig 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.681 / def 0.890 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.626 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: SV Wehen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig FAQs
What time does SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 8 December 2023 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
SV Wehen 1 - 3 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 16) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 48% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SV Wehen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SV Wehen's attack at 0.68x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus SV Wehen's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Wehen's last 15 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Wehen Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.39
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
2.08
0.80
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
6%
15.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for SV Wehen and 0.80 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Wehen come into this having played 17 games, going 8W 3D 6L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Eintracht Braunschweig sit at 0.47 PPG from 17 outings (2W 2D 13L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
SV Wehen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SV Wehen's home form reads 4W 3D 1L across their last 8 home games, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Braunschweig have taken 0.00 points per game from their last 8 away games (0W 0D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Wehen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Wehen are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 0.76 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
SV Wehen (Home) vs Eintracht Braunschweig (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Wehen
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig Form FAQs
What form are SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 8W 3D 6L in their last 17 games (1.59 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 2W 2D 13L in their last 17 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
SV Wehen's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.88 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Wehen
0
Draws
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Wehen have won 0, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 May 2024: Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 SV Wehen.
Who has won more matches between SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Eintracht Braunschweig have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Wehen 50%, Eintracht Braunschweig 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (SV Wehen) and 62% (Eintracht Braunschweig).
On the defensive side: SV Wehen keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 38% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of SV Wehen's recent games and 62% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 75% of Eintracht Braunschweig's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SV Wehen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat SV Wehen 1-3 at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 1.28 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.80 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.68 / defence 0.89 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.63 / defence 1.10, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 48% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Braunschweig 23%, with SV Wehen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Eintracht Braunschweig win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 41%, Eintracht Braunschweig 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Wehen arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.47. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Braunschweig winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SV Wehen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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