Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fortuna Düsseldorf face Holstein Kiel.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Holstein Kiel travel to Düsseldorf Arena to take on Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Holstein Kiel stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Holstein Kiel's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.70 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1 for Holstein Kiel and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2023, ended Fortuna Düsseldorf 3–0 Holstein Kiel — a Fortuna Düsseldorf win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Holstein Kiel trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 57% and Holstein Kiel 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% | Holstein Kiel 69%). Note also that Holstein Kiel surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Fortuna Düsseldorf recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.54 xG and Holstein Kiel 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.131 / defence 1.275 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.150 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.465. Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Holstein Kiel's projected output up. Data: built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 49 games and Holstein Kiel's last 49.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 27% | Draw 22% | Holstein Kiel 51%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.68 | Draw 4.64 | Holstein Kiel 1.95. Holstein Kiel hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (1.54 / 2.15) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Holstein Kiel as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and Holstein Kiel's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fortuna Düsseldorf 80% (last 10 home games) | Holstein Kiel 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 16 | Venue: Düsseldorf Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 27% | Draw 22% | Holstein Kiel 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.54 / Holstein Kiel 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.131 / def 1.275 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.150 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Holstein Kiel xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel FAQs
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Düsseldorf Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 0 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Düsseldorf Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 16) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 27% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.13x the league average against Holstein Kiel's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 2.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 49 games and Holstein Kiel's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
27%
3.68
22%
4.64
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.69
2.15
Holstein Kiel xG
3.68
27%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
12%
8.58
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
3%
31.54
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 2.15 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 49 games, going 25W 10D 14L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.53 PPG from 49 outings (21W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.73 PPG, Holstein Kiel on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 14W 6D 4L across their last 24 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 1.67 points per game from their last 24 away games (11W 7D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.78 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel in 73%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf (Home) vs Holstein Kiel (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel Form FAQs
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 25W 10D 14L in their last 49 games (1.73 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 21W 12D 16L in their last 49 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 2.00 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 10 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Holstein Kiel have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 May 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-0 Holstein Kiel.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
4
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, Holstein Kiel have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 April 2026: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fortuna Düsseldorf at 71%, Holstein Kiel at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 62% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Holstein Kiel Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 62% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 62% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Holstein Kiel matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent matches and 75% of Holstein Kiel's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1 at Düsseldorf Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.54 xG and Holstein Kiel 2.15 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Holstein Kiel landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.13 / defence 1.27 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.15 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 27% | Draw 22% | Holstein Kiel 51%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%, Holstein Kiel 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.73 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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