SV Elversberg 6-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 75%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Elversberg host SSV Jahn Regensburg at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Elversberg stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SSV Jahn Regensburg — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SV Elversberg are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SV Elversberg, 1 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 45% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 59% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 2.65 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.170 / defence 1.163 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.576 / defence 1.561. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.263. SSV Jahn Regensburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.561 — this is suppressing SV Elversberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 SV Elversberg games / 27 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 75% | Draw 16% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 9%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 1.33 | Draw 6.25 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 11.11. The model has a clear lean to SV Elversberg (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Elversberg are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: SV Elversberg 70% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 75% | Draw 16% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 54% | xG SV Elversberg 2.65 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.170 / def 1.163 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.576 / def 1.561 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.65
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
0.85
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
54%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
SV Elversberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SV Elversberg 6 - 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is SV Elversberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
SV Elversberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 75% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SV Elversberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (1 meetings): SV Elversberg 0W | Draws 0 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W.
What form are SV Elversberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SV Elversberg's attack rating (1.17) and SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 2.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
75%
1.33
16%
6.33
9%
11.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.65
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
3.49
0.85
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.33
16%
Draw
11.04
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
7%
14.08
Win to Nil
32%
3.10
1%
155.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.65 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 0.85 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, SV Elversberg have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 11W 8D 10L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form line: 6W 5D 18L from 29 games, 0.79 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SV Elversberg are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SV Elversberg have posted 1.64 PPG from 14 outings (7W 2D 5L).
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 1W 1D 12L from 14 away games — 0.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SSV Jahn Regensburg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 0.69 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 11W 8D 10L in their last 29 games (1.41 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 6W 5D 18L in their last 29 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.64 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.29 PPG.
Have SV Elversberg or SSV Jahn Regensburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Elversberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SV Elversberg
0
Draws
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 1, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when SV Elversberg 6-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 64%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for SV Elversberg and 57% for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 36% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Elversberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of SV Elversberg's matches and 57% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do SV Elversberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Elversberg run riot with a 6-0 hammering of SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 6-0 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 2.65 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.85 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. SV Elversberg beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SSV Jahn Regensburg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.17 / defence 1.16 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.58 / defence 1.56, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 75% | Draw 16% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 9%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 59%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.