SV Elversberg 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Elversberg at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Waldstadion Kaiserlinde plays host to SV Elversberg versus Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 14 December 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Elversberg have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, SV Elversberg have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in SV Elversberg's favour (2.00 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SV Elversberg lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SV Elversberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 51% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 59% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.77 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.166 / defence 0.756 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.820 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.343. SV Elversberg's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 SV Elversberg games / 49 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 60% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 17%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 5.88. The model has a clear lean to SV Elversberg (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Elversberg are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: SV Elversberg 50% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 60% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG SV Elversberg 1.77 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.166 / def 0.756 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.820 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SV Elversberg 1 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 60% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (4 meetings): SV Elversberg 1W | Draws 2 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W.
What form are SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (0.82x) against SV Elversberg's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.34
17%
5.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.61
0.83
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
5.79
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
3%
34.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 0.83 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Elversberg come into this having played 49 games, going 25W 12D 12L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.37 PPG from 49 outings (18W 13D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Elversberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SV Elversberg's home form reads 13W 5D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 1.50 points per game from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.43 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 61%.
Defensively: SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 25W 12D 12L in their last 49 games (1.78 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 18W 13D 18L in their last 49 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.83 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.50 PPG.
Have SV Elversberg or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortuna Düsseldorf won 0-5 on 26 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Elversberg have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SV Elversberg
2
Draws
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 2, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 SV Elversberg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 54%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SV Elversberg and 58% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of SV Elversberg's games and 71% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Elversberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SV Elversberg's matches and 58% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do SV Elversberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Elversberg edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.77 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.83 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.17 / defence 0.76 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.82 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 60% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 17%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 59%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.