SSV Ulm 1846 0-1 Karlsruher SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Karlsruher SC at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Ulm 1846 vs Karlsruher SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SSV Ulm 1846 host Karlsruher SC at Donaustadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Ulm 1846 stand at 2W 1D 5L from 8 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.88 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Ulm 1846's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 3L across 4 games at Donaustadion this term (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Karlsruher SC — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Karlsruher SC have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Karlsruher SC — 1.02 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.88). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
SSV Ulm 1846 in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Karlsruher SC in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SSV Ulm 1846 62% and Karlsruher SC 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SSV Ulm 1846 62% | Karlsruher SC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.49 xG and Karlsruher SC 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.900 / defence 1.208 | Karlsruher SC attack 1.220 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.460. Karlsruher SC have an above-average attack strength of 1.220 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 42 Karlsruher SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 25% | Draw 24% | Karlsruher SC 51%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Karlsruher SC 1.96. Karlsruher SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karlsruher SC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SSV Ulm 1846 100% | Karlsruher SC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Ulm 1846 vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Donaustadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 25% | Draw 24% | Karlsruher SC 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG SSV Ulm 1846 1.49 / Karlsruher SC 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.900 / def 1.208 | Karlsruher SC attack 1.220 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Karlsruher SC xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Ulm 1846 vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs Karlsruher SC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Donaustadion.
What was the final score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs Karlsruher SC?
SSV Ulm 1846 0 - 1 Karlsruher SC.
Where is SSV Ulm 1846 vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at Donaustadion.
What competition is SSV Ulm 1846 vs Karlsruher SC part of?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs Karlsruher SC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Ulm 1846 vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives SSV Ulm 1846 a 25% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both SSV Ulm 1846 and Karlsruher SC will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Ulm 1846 vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and Karlsruher SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and Karlsruher SC in?
SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.38 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Karlsruher SC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SSV Ulm 1846's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Karlsruher SC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Karlsruher SC's attack versus SSV Ulm 1846's defence, projects 2.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
25%
4.02
24%
4.17
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Total xG
3.64
2.15
Karlsruher SC xG
4.02
25%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
12%
8.60
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
3%
34.57
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Ulm 1846 vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are SSV Ulm 1846 and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 2.15 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Ulm 1846 vs Karlsruher SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, SSV Ulm 1846 have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 2W 1D 5L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SSV Ulm 1846 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karlsruher SC's form line: 4W 4D 0L from 8 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Karlsruher SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Karlsruher SC are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SSV Ulm 1846.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SSV Ulm 1846 have posted 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
On the road, Karlsruher SC have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Karlsruher SC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karlsruher SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SSV Ulm 1846 are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Karlsruher SC are on 2.38 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Ulm 1846 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Karlsruher SC in 75%.
Last 8 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Ulm 1846
Blended
Karlsruher SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and Karlsruher SC in coming into this match?
SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Karlsruher SC have gone 4W 4D 0L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Ulm 1846 at home or Karlsruher SC away?
Karlsruher SC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Ulm 1846 at home: 0.75 PPG; Karlsruher SC away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SSV Ulm 1846 and Karlsruher SC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SSV Ulm 1846
1
Draws
1
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and Karlsruher SC?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, Karlsruher SC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SSV Ulm 1846 and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Karlsruher SC 0-0 SSV Ulm 1846.
Who has won more matches between SSV Ulm 1846 and Karlsruher SC?
Karlsruher SC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SSV Ulm 1846 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SSV Ulm 1846 at 100%, Karlsruher SC at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for SSV Ulm 1846 and 75% for Karlsruher SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Ulm 1846 home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Ulm 1846 play Karlsruher SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of SSV Ulm 1846's games and 75% of Karlsruher SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Ulm 1846 vs Karlsruher SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of SSV Ulm 1846's matches and 75% of Karlsruher SC's.
Do SSV Ulm 1846 and Karlsruher SC tend to score early?
SSV Ulm 1846 have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Karlsruher SC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karlsruher SC edge out SSV Ulm 1846 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karlsruher SC beat SSV Ulm 1846 0-1 at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 1.49 xG and Karlsruher SC 2.15 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SSV Ulm 1846 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Karlsruher SC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against Karlsruher SC attack 1.22 / defence 1.02, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 25% | Draw 24% | Karlsruher SC 51%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 62%, Karlsruher SC 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.