SSV Ulm 1846 1-2 1. FC Kaiserslautern – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees 1. FC Kaiserslautern travel to Donaustadion to take on SSV Ulm 1846. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 August 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
1. FC Kaiserslautern — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1. FC Kaiserslautern haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
1. FC Kaiserslautern away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.43 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.019 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.339. Data: 0 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 34 1. FC Kaiserslautern games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 34% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 40%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Kaiserslautern offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Donaustadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 34% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG SSV Ulm 1846 1.43 / 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.019 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Expected Goals
1.57
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern kick off?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Donaustadion.
What was the final score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
SSV Ulm 1846 1 - 2 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
Where is SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern being played?
The match is being played at Donaustadion.
What competition is SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern part of?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our statistical model gives SSV Ulm 1846 a 34% chance of winning, 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Kaiserslautern the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SSV Ulm 1846's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack versus SSV Ulm 1846's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Kaiserslautern Win
34%
2.97
26%
3.78
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Total xG
3.00
1.57
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
7%
14.27
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 1.57 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Ulm 1846
Pre-Season
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SSV Ulm 1846
0
Draws
2
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2-1 SSV Ulm 1846.
Who has won more matches between SSV Ulm 1846 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Ulm 1846 home games / 1. FC Kaiserslautern away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Kaiserslautern edge out SSV Ulm 1846 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Kaiserslautern beat SSV Ulm 1846 1-2 at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 1.43 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.57 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 34% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 40%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.