SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as SpVgg Greuther Fürth welcome SSV Jahn Regensburg to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 February 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) versus 1.00 (SSV Jahn Regensburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 0 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 4–0 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
SSV Jahn Regensburg trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.61 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.956 / defence 1.298 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.680 / defence 1.791. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.540. SSV Jahn Regensburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.791 — this is suppressing SpVgg Greuther Fürth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 20 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | Draw 18% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 18%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.56 | Draw 5.56 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SpVgg Greuther Fürth (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.61 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Friday 7 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | Draw 18% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 69% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.61 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.956 / def 1.298 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.680 / def 1.791 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.61
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.36
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 7 February 2025 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 64% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 18% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (3 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W | Draws 1 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 0.96x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 1.79x — combine the two and it projects 2.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.6%), 1-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
64%
1.57
18%
5.44
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.61
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.97
1.36
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
7%
13.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
1%
76.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.61 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.36 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 6D 9L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SSV Jahn Regensburg sit at 0.82 PPG from 22 outings (5W 3D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 3W 2D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, SSV Jahn Regensburg have taken 0.40 points per game from 10 outings (1W 1D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SSV Jahn Regensburg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 0.73 scored and 2.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 27%.
Last 22 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 5W 3D 14L in their last 22 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.10 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2024, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting SSV Jahn Regensburg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 4 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 60% for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 40% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 60% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge out SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.61 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.36 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.96 / defence 1.30 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.68 / defence 1.79, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | Draw 18% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 18%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SpVgg Greuther Fürth arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.