SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-5 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host 1. FC Magdeburg at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
1. FC Magdeburg — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 0.90 PPG versus 1. FC Magdeburg's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, 1. FC Magdeburg 1, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 5–4 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
1. FC Magdeburg in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65% | 1. FC Magdeburg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.06 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.851 / defence 1.233 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.089 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.300. Data: 54 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 54 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 22% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 53%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Magdeburg 1.89. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Magdeburg are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | 1. FC Magdeburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 22% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.06 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.851 / def 1.233 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.089 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.75
1. FC Magdeburg xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4 - 5 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 22% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (7 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W | Draws 4 | 1. FC Magdeburg 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Magdeburg's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
22%
4.47
25%
3.99
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.81
1.75
1. FC Magdeburg xG
4.47
22%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
4%
25.63
18%
5.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.75 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 15W 13D 26L from 54 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Magdeburg, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 21L across 54 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.07 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 8W 8D 10L from 26 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Magdeburg's away record stands at 12W 5D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.67 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 54 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 15W 13D 26L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 20W 13D 21L in their last 54 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
1. FC Magdeburg's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.23 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting 1. FC Magdeburg specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4
Draws
2
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 8 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-5 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%, 1. FC Magdeburg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 62% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 62% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 62% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Magdeburg edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-5.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-5 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.06 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.75 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 4-5 for 9 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 1.75 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.09 / defence 0.88, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 22% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 53%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65%, 1. FC Magdeburg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.07 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.